Hogwarts Legacy Conjures Up a Challenge for Call of Duty and Rockstar’s US Sales Reign
For over a decade, Call of Duty has reigned supreme, year after year, atop the US video game sales charts. Only Rockstar’s Red Dead Redemption 2 and Grand Theft Auto V dared to break its streak. But now, a new challenger has emerged from the mists of Hogwarts: Hogwarts Legacy.
Circana’s monthly report paints a surprising picture. Modern Warfare 2 may have secured November’s top spot, but for the year so far, it’s Hogwarts Legacy that holds the crown. And with its current momentum, the magical title could very well finish 2023 as the undisputed champion.
This potential upset would mark a historic shift. Since 2008, when Rock Band ruled the charts, the top spot has belonged exclusively to either Call of Duty or a Rockstar game. Hogwarts Legacy’s potential victory would rewrite the script, proving that even the mightiest franchises can be dethroned by a captivating new world.
So, brace yourselves for a thrilling battle between veteran titans and a rising star. Will Call of Duty and Rockstar reclaim their dominance, or will Hogwarts Legacy etch its name in the annals of US video game history? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for certain: the competition has never been more magical.
So, what’s the scenario here? Is Hogwarts Legacy simply performing exceptionally well, or is Call of Duty facing a downturn this year? According to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella, it’s a bit of both. Piscatella, in conversation with Circana, confirms that Hogwarts Legacy has indeed showcased remarkable performance, further boosted by its recent launch on the Switch. It secured the second-best-selling spot on the Switch in dollar sales for November, following only Super Mario Bros. Wonder.
On the flip side, full game dollar sales for Modern Warfare 3 are trailing behind Modern Warfare 2’s performance from the same period last year, influenced by various factors, including its slightly later launch in the year. Piscatella clarifies, “It’s not to say that Modern Warfare 3 is doing poorly (it is already the 2nd best-selling game of 2023 after all), but no, it is not currently meeting what Modern Warfare II did a year ago.”
Hardware Experiences Significant Decline in 2023
While headlines might be dominated by Hogwarts Legacy’s magical ascent, a closer look at Circana’s latest report reveals a more complex picture for the November game sales landscape. Here are some key takeaways:
Hardware Hits a Slump:
Overall hardware sales dipped 24% year-over-year in November, with all current-gen consoles experiencing over 20% declines in dollar sales. Even the ever-resilient Switch saw a dip, likely due to its age and growing anticipation for new hardware. Analyst Mat Piscatella offers a nuanced perspective, reminding us that last year’s November saw consoles finally meeting pent-up demand after supply constraints. So, while the year-on-year numbers look rough, the bigger picture shows a market adjusting after a period of elevated supply. This “comp issue,” as Piscatella aptly puts it, is expected to linger in December but settle out by January.
Software Sees Surprises:
Despite the hardware dip, the software side offered some interesting highlights. Super Mario RPG Remake, fueled by physical sales alone (Nintendo keeps its digital sales under wraps), debuted at No.7, proving the enduring appeal of classic RPGs. Anime fans rejoiced with Naruto X Boruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm Connections entering at No.12, while Star Ocean: The Second Story R secured a spot at No.17. Discounts also played a role, with God of War: Ragnarok experiencing a chart boost thanks to a 50% Black Friday discount, and Just Dance 2024 leaping from No.73 in October to No.20 in November, likely for the same reason.
A Year-End Shuffle:
While Hogwarts Legacy might be stealing the spotlight, the November report paints a broader picture of a market in flux. Hardware sales are adjusting after a year of supply constraints, and software continues to offer diverse opportunities for success. As we head towards December and the holiday season, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and who emerges as the ultimate champion of the year-end sales battle.
So, the next time you see a headline about the “death” of hardware or the dominance of a single game, remember, the story behind the numbers is often richer and more nuanced than it appears. Stay tuned for further updates on the ever-evolving landscape of the video game industry!
Image Credit: Circana
In the realm of hardware, the PlayStation 5 maintains its position as the best-selling platform of 2023 in both units and dollar sales, closely trailed by the Switch. However, for the month of November, the Xbox Series secured the second spot.
The comprehensive insights into the full-year performance across these categories are anticipated in January with Circana’s annual report and analysis. Worth mentioning is the absence of Grand Theft Auto 6 data, as Take-Two Interactive no longer supplies the necessary information to be included in Circana’s charts. Regardless of Hogwarts’ potential victory this year, Call of Duty is expected to resume its dominance in Circana’s rankings in the years to come. Business as usual.
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